SocialPicks.com: Recent activities for prince0427

Calpine Corp is a buy (CPN, rated BUY)

prince0427 — Mon, 26 May 2008 00:13:34 -0000

NRG’s current market capitalization is about $10B and its proposal values CPN at approximately $11B.

NRG and CPN have roughly the same power generating capacity but CPN is superior to NRG in terms of its asset portfolio. The average age of CPN’s plants is under 10 years while NRG plants are over 35 years old. CPN uses clean NG and even cleaner geothermal for its power while NRG relies on a mix of sources including nearly 40% from coal. In the face of greater scrutiny in regards to emissions control, coal power generation could face costlier emission controls that NRG would have to allocate for. NRG's assets that utilize coal would decline in value while CPN's should rise. CPN is also entrenched in some of the best geographies in terms of power demand due to hotter summers relative to the rest of the country, as well as changes in regards to nodal pricing. CPN also has three new plants that will come online in the coming years that will boost its production capacity by roughly 10%.

Despite these differences, NRG believes CPN is worth just $1B or so more than its current valuation, implying the two are worth virtually the same even though CPN’s asset base is incredibly superior to NRG and in fact, all independent power producers (“IPPs”). Just a quick review of the asset differences should make investors and the Board question why NRG is offering such a low price.

The answer is tied to a few factors. The first is that CPN was restructured under Robert May’s leadership and May will not remain as permanent CEO. NRG is trying to seize on the lack of permanent leadership at CPN through this lowball offer. The second factor relates to NRG expecting investors and the Board to rely on the noisy historical financials that, even once scrubbed for one-time items and restructuring charges, belie where CPN's operating results can be in the coming years.

As previously discussed, the Company is poised to benefit from a variety of industry tailwinds and company-specific drivers. These factors, combined with a leaner company that is not burdened by poorly performing non-core assets, should result in CPN producing operating results that exceed its historical performance by a wide margin. In January 2008, CPN revealed that it expected to generate about $1.75B in adjusted EBITDA for 2008 which is a 25% increase over its 2007 adjusted EBITDA and probably did not account for the spike in gas prices that is currently being experienced.

IPPs with high debt loads such as DYN and MIR trade for 17-18x EV/EBITDA, which is where CPN currently stands based on its LTM adjusted EBITDA. However, CPN is poised to increase EBITDA by 25% if not more. Assuming shareholders hold out for the next 12 months, shares in CPN could be valued at $35 per share. Given the discrepancies in capital structures among IPPs, valuing CPN off EV/Revenues could provide a useful tool. Peers such as NRG, MIR, and DYN trade for 3-4x EV/LTM Revenues. Using CPN’s LTM revenues as of March 31, 2008, the Company would be valued between $30-$45 per share on a fully diluted basis (500MM shares) based on its peer's comparable range.

Quoted from: http://seekingalpha.com/article/78599-7-reasons-why-nrgs-offe...

PGPM is a buy (PGPM, rated BUY)

prince0427 — Fri, 16 May 2008 22:24:53 -0000

Pilgrim Petroleum Corporation announced today the company's year 2008 projected EPS (Net Earnings / Outstanding Shares) $50,000,000/844,236,923 of 0.06. Based on this EPS multiplied by a sustainable growth rate of 25% and multiplied by the average industry P/E ratio of 20.96 (Reuters), Pilgrim's intrinsic value or estimated stock value should be $0.3103.

Philips is a buy (PHG, rated BUY)

prince0427 — Fri, 16 May 2008 10:52:28 -0000

Strong company in a market with strong demand in it's expertise.
Great overall numbers, the daily avg. is a bit low I guess but no worries, by Q4 it'll be over 41$ for sure.

Vale is a buy (RIO, rated BUY)

prince0427 — Fri, 16 May 2008 10:48:11 -0000

Companhia Vale do Rio Doce (Vale) is a diversified metals and mining company. The Company is a producer and exporter of iron ore and pellets and a producer of nickel. It also produces copper, manganese, ferroalloys, bauxite, precious metals, cobalt, kaolin, potash and other products. Directly and through affiliates and joint ventures, the Company has investments in the aluminum, coal, energy and steel businesses. Vale operates, among others, eight hydroelectric power plants in Brazil and two in Indonesia.

In my eyes one of the strongest choices for a long term investment in the market.

Strong Buy Gulf Coast Oil & Gas (GCOG, rated BUY)

prince0427 — Wed, 14 May 2008 19:01:21 -0000

Gulf Coast Oil & Gas, Inc. is an exploration-stage company. The Company focuses to undertake oil and gas exploration projects in the continental United States. The Company has assets in both Texas and Louisiana. It has three producing wells in Nueces County, Texas. The Saratoga prospect is located within the Upper Cretaceous. As of December 31, 2006, the Company was awaiting the results of drilling by certain other companies on wells located in the vicinity of the Company's leaseholds before it attempts drilling and completion of the Saratoga Prospect.

With strong demand on Oil and oil prices getting record high everyday..
This company seems like a strong buy to me.

We've seen it's this stock grow over 1100% in the past 10 months and I won't bet against it either.

Sell C (C, rated SELL)

prince0427 — Sun, 11 May 2008 15:38:13 -0000

This stock might take a small nosedive this week.

Sell! (YHOO, rated SELL)

prince0427 — Thu, 08 May 2008 10:00:10 -0000

Sell yahoo

Yahoo! Inc (YHOO) is a HOLD

prince0427 — Mon, 05 May 2008 16:35:23 -0000

HOLD rating on Yahoo! Inc (YHOO)

Start Price: $24.62
Start Date: 05/05/2008

YHOO is a sell (YHOO, rated SELL)

prince0427 — Sun, 04 May 2008 10:21:28 -0000

Microsoft withdraws bid to acquire Yahoo

NWD a sell (NWD, rated SELL)

prince0427 — Sun, 04 May 2008 00:35:26 -0000