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There is a lot of potential in ADBE that's clear... they are a leader in many markets but there hasn't been much new AND useful stuff from them. Their Photoshop is still industry standard but fact is nobody I know really needs all the stuff it can do and competition is becoming better, many people already dropped in in favor of simpler programs which suit their needs.
Their DreamWeaver is a piece of crap... I've yet to meet any intelligent person who finds it useful, sadly there's no competition - SO FAR. The comment applies both to experienced techies like myself and naive users... it's just a piece of crap.
Flash - industry leading, yes... annoying like hell YES, revolutionary NO... Flash was hyped as the next great thing, now it's used mainly to display online ads and video which you can't donwload. It's not a piece of crap like DreamWeaver but if it wasn't for their marketing muscle there would be better software out there... think DivX. And Flash is probably the best they have going for them so far.
Their new product launches are again crap... full of bugs to be useless, limited in functionality... ok for free software, not ok for an industry leader.
As far as video editing is concerned... well, they fell asleep like 5 years ago... This is currently my profession (filmmaker) and there is simply NO alternative to FinalCut... if they don't realize the opportunity they are wasting (and have been wasting) here they can't be helped.... the result is that Apple is not innovating FinalCut as fast as they could because there's simply no need to and I'm happy to live with the FEW limitations and FEW bugs it has.
Forgot Adobe Reader, which again: thanks to marketing muscle has become THE standard and will remain for many years... it was a GENIAL idea and software when it was developed, now it's annoying and bug-ridden to the point it's giving me stomach ulchers...
So, from a technical (in the sense of technology) point of view this is headed downwards... STILL the company will come back sooner or later. The problem is that right now it is RICHLY valued... and the market isn't in euphoric mood generally speaking so I wouldn't - using logic - recommend this by any means.
HOWEVER: markets function differently so I don't rule out that this stock will see some upside and perhaps the problems above will never be noticed by "the street"... but personally I'm not betting my money on this sickly horse.
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$40.88 (05/22/08)
